Ammunition shortages in Ukraine - production, supply, & are Russia or the West running dry?
Published at : January 02, 2023
In Ukraine, perhaps no weapon has caused more losses, or decided more engagements than the artillery.
With contested airspace both side have turned to the big guns to support their operations - and both have consumed ammunition at a prodigious rate (albeit Russia many times faster than Ukraine).
In this episode - I look at the question of production and supply and ask the question - are Russia or Ukraine going to run out of shells in 2023
Patreon:
https://www.patreon.com/PerunAU
Reading/Sources:
Russian Ammunition Consumption:
https://news.err.ee/1608800317/edf-intelligence-chief-russia-has-used-up-two-thirds-of-its-ammunition
https://www.defensenews.com/smr/reagan-defense-forum/2022/12/04/russia-burning-through-ammunition-in-ukraine-at-extraordinary-rate/
Translation of Murz article - original linked (use wayback machine?)
https://wartranslated.com/russian-volunteer-murz-on-why-russia-is-not-ready-to-defend-ukrainian-winter-offensive/
Production Levels:
https://www.thedefensepost.com/2022/11/17/uk-bae-artillery-shell-production/
https://www.defensenews.com/pentagon/2022/12/05/army-plans-dramatic-ammo-production-boost-as-ukraine-drains-stocks/
https://www.reuters.com/article/ukraine-crisis-ammunition-csg-idINL8N32R4T9
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/special-reports/call-for-munitions-investment-to-turbocharge-our-defence-preparedness/news-story/634788501d744eb5f9aaed960af76af2
https://www.rheinmetall.com/en/rheinmetall_ag/press/news/latest_news/index_35904.php
https://www.thedefensepost.com/2022/11/29/ukraine-first-operator-precision-bomb/
https://ubn.news/germany-is-building-its-own-munitions-factory-which-ukraine-needs/
https://bdnews24.com/world/europe/fdo6merjyc
https://www.grid.news/story/global/2022/11/29/ukraine-has-an-insatiable-need-for-ammunition-but-the-us-doesnt-have-an-endless-supply/
US Stocks & Cluster:
GAO Report - '95
https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/GAOREPORTS-NSIAD-95-89/html/GAOREPORTS-NSIAD-95-89.htm
US Army Ammo Procurement justification books
https://www.asafm.army.mil/Portals/72/Documents/BudgetMaterial/2020/Base%20Budget/Procurement/04%20Procurement%20of%20Ammunition%20Army.pdf
https://www.asafm.army.mil/Portals/72/Documents/BudgetMaterial/2021/Base%20Budget/Procurement/AMMO_FY_2021_PB_Procurement_of_Ammunition_Army.pdf
US Army Demil program
https://media.defense.gov/2017/Dec/21/2001860132/-1/-1/1/DODIG-2018-052.PDF
CRS - Cluster
https://sgp.fas.org/crs/weapons/RS22907.pdf
https://edition.cnn.com/2022/12/07/politics/ukraine-cluster-munitions-us-war-russia/index.html
http://www.the-monitor.org/en-gb/reports/2020/united-states/cluster-munition-ban-policy.aspx#ftn52
Others:
https://apps.dtic.mil/sti/pdfs/ADA416944.pdf
Caveats/correction:
The nature of reporting on an ongoing war limits the confidence/accuracy of the information presented. Please regard the content of this video accordingly.
At one point I state that the US will hit 20,000 rounds of 155mm produced per month in summer, it's in fact by Spring.
This video is no financial advice, and should not be relied upon/may contain errors in all respects. Please don't go making financial decisions because of what you see in a YT video.
Timestamps:
00:00:00 — Opening Words
00:02:03 — What Am I Talking About
00:02:39 — HISTORY
00:02:44 — The Scandal of 1915
00:04:12 — The Korean Crisis
00:04:44 — Cold War Ruggedisation
00:05:37 — Post Cold War Atrophy
00:06:56 — Russia's Close Calls
00:07:35 — Storage & Production
00:08:37 — FEEDING THE GUNS
00:08:45 — Everyone is Running Out
00:09:05 — Everyone has Plenty of Ammo
00:09:30 — RUSSIA
00:09:33 — The Artillery Army
00:10:44 — Dueling Narratives
00:11:36 — Systems & Consumption
00:12:57 — Shell Hunger?
00:14:27 — FIRMS Returns
00:16:29 — Why?
00:18:02 — Production
00:19:43 — Stretching Production
00:21:26 — Options?
00:23:01 — Conclusion
00:25:08 — UKRAINE
00:25:21 — Doom and Gloom?
00:26:02 — Crashing Out the Rainy-Day Fund
00:26:31 — No NATO Shells?
00:27:22 — Why Did This Happen?
00:29:02 — Overly Focusing the View
00:30:48 — CONSUMPTION
00:31:21 — Putting a Number on the Need
00:32:18 — Filling the Requirement
00:33:12 — PRODUCTION
00:33:23 — Atrophied Industry
00:33:52 — Describing Production
00:35:07 — The Production Picture
00:36:22 — Surge Capacity?
00:37:12 — The Production Picture: US
00:38:53 — The Production Picture: EUROPE
00:40:44 — Production Slack (EU)
00:42:40 — The Production Picture: Asia-Pacific (APAC)
00:44:06 — The Korean Option
00:46:32 — The Production Picture: The Extras
00:48:10 — LEGACY AMMO
00:48:19 — Legacy Ammo Production
00:49:09 — MAKING IT WORK
00:50:06 — Politics & Patience
00:52:20 — Wide Sourcing
00:52:41 — The Great Ammunition Purchase Tour
00:53:58 — Substitution...
00:55:29 — ... & Precision
00:57:39 — Emergency Options
00:58:16 — Cluster Munition
01:00:09 — The Cluster Option
01:03:41 — What Are We Seeing?
01:05:24 — CONCLUSIONS
01:07:05 — CHANNEL UPDATE
With contested airspace both side have turned to the big guns to support their operations - and both have consumed ammunition at a prodigious rate (albeit Russia many times faster than Ukraine).
In this episode - I look at the question of production and supply and ask the question - are Russia or Ukraine going to run out of shells in 2023
Patreon:
https://www.patreon.com/PerunAU
Reading/Sources:
Russian Ammunition Consumption:
https://news.err.ee/1608800317/edf-intelligence-chief-russia-has-used-up-two-thirds-of-its-ammunition
https://www.defensenews.com/smr/reagan-defense-forum/2022/12/04/russia-burning-through-ammunition-in-ukraine-at-extraordinary-rate/
Translation of Murz article - original linked (use wayback machine?)
https://wartranslated.com/russian-volunteer-murz-on-why-russia-is-not-ready-to-defend-ukrainian-winter-offensive/
Production Levels:
https://www.thedefensepost.com/2022/11/17/uk-bae-artillery-shell-production/
https://www.defensenews.com/pentagon/2022/12/05/army-plans-dramatic-ammo-production-boost-as-ukraine-drains-stocks/
https://www.reuters.com/article/ukraine-crisis-ammunition-csg-idINL8N32R4T9
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/special-reports/call-for-munitions-investment-to-turbocharge-our-defence-preparedness/news-story/634788501d744eb5f9aaed960af76af2
https://www.rheinmetall.com/en/rheinmetall_ag/press/news/latest_news/index_35904.php
https://www.thedefensepost.com/2022/11/29/ukraine-first-operator-precision-bomb/
https://ubn.news/germany-is-building-its-own-munitions-factory-which-ukraine-needs/
https://bdnews24.com/world/europe/fdo6merjyc
https://www.grid.news/story/global/2022/11/29/ukraine-has-an-insatiable-need-for-ammunition-but-the-us-doesnt-have-an-endless-supply/
US Stocks & Cluster:
GAO Report - '95
https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/GAOREPORTS-NSIAD-95-89/html/GAOREPORTS-NSIAD-95-89.htm
US Army Ammo Procurement justification books
https://www.asafm.army.mil/Portals/72/Documents/BudgetMaterial/2020/Base%20Budget/Procurement/04%20Procurement%20of%20Ammunition%20Army.pdf
https://www.asafm.army.mil/Portals/72/Documents/BudgetMaterial/2021/Base%20Budget/Procurement/AMMO_FY_2021_PB_Procurement_of_Ammunition_Army.pdf
US Army Demil program
https://media.defense.gov/2017/Dec/21/2001860132/-1/-1/1/DODIG-2018-052.PDF
CRS - Cluster
https://sgp.fas.org/crs/weapons/RS22907.pdf
https://edition.cnn.com/2022/12/07/politics/ukraine-cluster-munitions-us-war-russia/index.html
http://www.the-monitor.org/en-gb/reports/2020/united-states/cluster-munition-ban-policy.aspx#ftn52
Others:
https://apps.dtic.mil/sti/pdfs/ADA416944.pdf
Caveats/correction:
The nature of reporting on an ongoing war limits the confidence/accuracy of the information presented. Please regard the content of this video accordingly.
At one point I state that the US will hit 20,000 rounds of 155mm produced per month in summer, it's in fact by Spring.
This video is no financial advice, and should not be relied upon/may contain errors in all respects. Please don't go making financial decisions because of what you see in a YT video.
Timestamps:
00:00:00 — Opening Words
00:02:03 — What Am I Talking About
00:02:39 — HISTORY
00:02:44 — The Scandal of 1915
00:04:12 — The Korean Crisis
00:04:44 — Cold War Ruggedisation
00:05:37 — Post Cold War Atrophy
00:06:56 — Russia's Close Calls
00:07:35 — Storage & Production
00:08:37 — FEEDING THE GUNS
00:08:45 — Everyone is Running Out
00:09:05 — Everyone has Plenty of Ammo
00:09:30 — RUSSIA
00:09:33 — The Artillery Army
00:10:44 — Dueling Narratives
00:11:36 — Systems & Consumption
00:12:57 — Shell Hunger?
00:14:27 — FIRMS Returns
00:16:29 — Why?
00:18:02 — Production
00:19:43 — Stretching Production
00:21:26 — Options?
00:23:01 — Conclusion
00:25:08 — UKRAINE
00:25:21 — Doom and Gloom?
00:26:02 — Crashing Out the Rainy-Day Fund
00:26:31 — No NATO Shells?
00:27:22 — Why Did This Happen?
00:29:02 — Overly Focusing the View
00:30:48 — CONSUMPTION
00:31:21 — Putting a Number on the Need
00:32:18 — Filling the Requirement
00:33:12 — PRODUCTION
00:33:23 — Atrophied Industry
00:33:52 — Describing Production
00:35:07 — The Production Picture
00:36:22 — Surge Capacity?
00:37:12 — The Production Picture: US
00:38:53 — The Production Picture: EUROPE
00:40:44 — Production Slack (EU)
00:42:40 — The Production Picture: Asia-Pacific (APAC)
00:44:06 — The Korean Option
00:46:32 — The Production Picture: The Extras
00:48:10 — LEGACY AMMO
00:48:19 — Legacy Ammo Production
00:49:09 — MAKING IT WORK
00:50:06 — Politics & Patience
00:52:20 — Wide Sourcing
00:52:41 — The Great Ammunition Purchase Tour
00:53:58 — Substitution...
00:55:29 — ... & Precision
00:57:39 — Emergency Options
00:58:16 — Cluster Munition
01:00:09 — The Cluster Option
01:03:41 — What Are We Seeing?
01:05:24 — CONCLUSIONS
01:07:05 — CHANNEL UPDATE
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